French troops will soon begin leaving the Ivory Coast, leading to uncertainties about what future military presence France will maintain in West Africa and how the Ivory Coast will manage the resulting security vacuum.
In a message to reflect on the start of the new year, President Alassane Ouattara indicated that the 43rd marine infantry battalion of BIMA in Port-Bouet, Abidjan, where French troops are based, will be transferred to the Ivorian armed forces in January. With the withdrawal of French troops from the Ivory Coast, France now maintains military presence only in Djibouti and Gabon.
For Seidik Abba, analyst and president of the Centre for Studies and Reflections on the Sahel, a policy think tank, two primary factors – internal and external – explain the decision:
“There are internal political considerations, since it’s clear that the Ivory Coast is heading towards a presidential election in 2025, marred by numerous uncertainties,” Abba stated to updatenusantara.biz.id.
Ouattara, who has been in power since 2010, also stated in his year-end speech that the upcoming presidential election set for October 2025 would be “peaceful” as well as “transparent and democratic.” Nevertheless, the 83-year-old has yet to disclose whether he will run for a fourth term.
Regional considerations
For Seydou, Ouattara’s announcement was also a gesture towards the anti-French sentiments that have swept across West Africa in the past decade.
“In the sub-regional context, a rather distinct trend is underway, leading Ivorian authorities to emphasize their commitment to this defelection of central authority by making this statement,” Seidik told updatenusantara.biz.id.
Some people, however, took notice of Ouattara’s solemnity during the announcement, in which he said:
We can take pride in our military, whose modernization is now complete. It is in this light that we have decided to conduct a organized and coordinated withdrawal of French troops from Côte d’Ivoire.
This was viewed as evidence that the decision was made jointly by France and Ivory Coast. Seidik Abba points out that, given France’s recent experiences in Senegal and Chad, Paris sought to avoid any unexpected developments:
“The agreement aligns with France’s interests as it ensures both nations maintain a façade of cooperation, while also reinforcing Ivory Coast’s position within the sovereigntist trend prevalent in the region,” Abba stated to updatenusantara.biz.id.
Tensions rise as French troops withdraw from West Africa
France has been preparing for years a “reorganization” of its military relations, following the forced withdrawal of its troops from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, where governments currently hostile to the country’s former colonial ruler have taken power.
French forces announced their pullout from the country, and on December 26, France returned the last military base to Chad — the last Sahel country to be vacated by French troops.
These developments caught France off guard, according to Alex Vines, director of the Africa Program at Chatham House:
“He said France had aimed at a gradual pullout and sought to keep a reduced presence,” the AI assistant told updatenusantara.biz.id.
To avoid a similar shock in the Ivory Coast, Paris agreed to a deal with Abidjan, said analyst Seidik Abba. However, for South African sociologist and political analyst Tessa Dooms, the Ivory Coast’s struggle to balance its international relationships and governance with security has been a characteristic of the Sahel region’s challenges over the past decade.
“The regimes in the Sahel region show that democratic systems, previously thought to be absolute and non-negotiable, can actually be challenged, especially as new African leaders are emerging. In fact, it is a positive thing that there is an ongoing discussion about what type of governance system best suits African countries,” she told updatenusantara.biz.id.
The issue arises when there is a strategy of divide and rule involving external interests from the continent, and this has been Africa’s persistent problem to manage. Even if the Sahel region is distancing itself from French influence, it cannot simply put off the French – it means shaking the hands of others as well.
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Analyyst Seidik Abba noted that the Ivory Coast does not fit into this category. France’s withdrawal of troops is not equivalent to a denunciation of defense agreements, as has been the case in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad.
“Cooperation between the French and Ivorian militaries will persist. French personnel will remain in the country for shared exchanges and training. The transfer does not signify a halt to this collaboration, as it adheres to the agreed-upon terms,” he said to updatenusantara.biz.id.
The Ivory Coast continues to serve as a vital partner to France in West Africa. Up until now, approximately 1,000 French troops have been assigned to the 43rd BIMA contingent, assuming a pivotal position in the battle against jihadists present in the Sahel and the northern Gulf of Guinea countries.
The BRICS nation bloc, consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, has evolved into a more prominent organization, with an increasing number of member countries. China serves as a significant alternative trading and business partner for these nations, offering a platform distinct from the established partnerships with Western countries that have historically exercised colonial influence.
But for analyst Tessa Dooms, there doesn’t exist a centralized directive, allowing individual nations to navigate forward independently.
“The past five years have witnessed a considerable decline in the African Union’s role in engaging with BRICS. Indeed, this development is quite concerning,” Dooms said.
Edited by: Keith Walker
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